The results, with provincial breakdowns (Excel file), are in and confirm the landslide victory of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. (Also available in map)
For the past few weeks, the Western media kept getting giddy as Iranian elections got closer, based on the upsurge of activity and support within the Mir-Hossein Mousavi campaign. They wrote about the Facebook pages, twittering, and blogs that were supporting Mousavi. They went to all the Mousavi rallies and took pictures of the "telegenic" crowds and heralded the coming of "change" in Iran. What they failed to do in the meantime was attend the rallies of Ahmedinejad, and thus failed to ascertain both the extent of his support, as well the composition.
But as the Western media needs to be reminded again and again, there is more to Iran than North Tehran and its wealthier residents. Just because they make you feel comfortable about yourself and reaffirm your own agendas, since they look and talk more like you, does not mean that they are representative of the masses of Iran. This problem becomes amplified when Western media send mainly journalists who do not speak the local languages, in this case Farsi, Azeri, Kurdi, Balouchi, and other regional languages within Iran. Since most of the journalists only speak English, they mostly speak to locals who speak English, which subsequently becomes a self-selecting population of those who can afford and have access to acquire such skills. Great emphasis is also laid on the youth vote, and the womens' vote, but it seems that it is only the youth and women of the privileged classes that matter or count. It was also said that the establishment itself was tired and fed up of Ahmedinejad and wanted to be rid of him, yet somehow this same establishment then collaborated to help him steal the vote.
At the same time, these same privileged classes within Iran also engage in navel-gazing and consider their views, lifestyles, and interests as either representative of the rest of Iran, or more often, as more important. After all, this was one of the causes of the Revolution in the first place. There is little doubt that these same classes look upon the rest of their fellow citizens as backward, stupid, and unable to "read." It is this same class of people (and their erstwhile companions in exile) who make up most of the Iranian presence on blogs, Facebook, and twitter. It is a campaign that represents such people that did not make as much of an effort to go out and campaign in the smaller cities, towns, and rural areas. It is their own narcissism, and the limited scope of coverage of the Western media, that combined to make it appear that Mousavi would be in a position to trounce Ahmedinejad.
It is to be noted that such condescending and dismissive attitudes towards the poorest members of society is also a common trend for the Western media within their own countries.
In the meantime, other Western organizations (with right-wing tendencies) conducted more randomly sampled, and thus more representative, telephone surveys, and rather accurately predicted the election in Ahmedinejad's favor even approximating the final vote rations.
Once the results came in, the Mousavi campaign and its self-absorbed supporters, as well as the Western media were shocked and unwilling to accept reality. However such was the conceit of all of the above, that they did not pause to reflect whether they had missed something, but instead ran out of their houses screaming bloody murder and alleging voter fraud, and AGAIN, the media followed right behind them. All of the post-coverage focused on these, so far at most couple of thousand, disgruntled and delirious Mousavi supporters as if it was a massive uprising. The protests and rioting were by and large limited to North and Central Tehran, and on the second day with some small protests in other big cities. The initial reports from twitter claimed that 50-100 people had been killed, and of course these numbers got bandied about, but never materialized. (They may however reach high as the protests and riots continue onto the third day).
The media again did not stop to ask itself whether these protestants were representative of the rest of the country. They again failed to provide decent coverage of Ahmedinejad's victory rally and the thousands upon thousands who turned out for it to compare numbers. When they did briefly report on this, the sore losers complained saying “It’s too bad CNN’s cameras are focused on the staged sham, while protesters being brutally beaten (and God knows what) elsewhere.”
The above quote taken from the NYTimes running blog, which was completely dedicated to presenting the views and reports of the protesters, had initially listed the actual coverage provided to the protesters with the number of reports from CNN, BBC, Sky TV, among others, and all numbered close to or over a hundred. That tally has been conveniently removed now. But for the sake of fun, one may conduct a brief and rough comparison of the coverage given to the protesters versus the victory rally on the websites of the following news outlets:
BBC - 1 for Victory Rally :: 12 for Protesters
CNN - 2 for Victory Rally :: 23 for Protesters
NYTimes - 0 for Victory Rally :: 11-13 for Protesters (including a very notable article dedicated to the protestation of unfair coverage by CNN of the protesters)
Washington Post - 1 for Victory Rally :: 8 for Protesters
Of course, in the morning the media will still be following behind the protests and repeating the mantra of voter fraud, with no mention or explanation of the massive numbers that turned out for the victory rally in Tehran (which Ahmedinejad still lost).
So what did happen to the vote?
CLASS VOTE - Everybody, from Western media/writers (whether of the right or left persuasion) to Iranian factions (Reformist, Conservative, Revolutionary) fully acknowledge that Ahmedinejad has made efforts in the last 4 years to redistribute income (and wealth, when permitted, through transfer of companies to public ownership through mechanisms such as the justice shares). Many of his critics in fact derided him for such actions and tried to pin it as "bribery," or call him the "potato government," but his efforts on spreading healthcare, education, and housing, etc to those that never had such access before are accepted by ALL parties.
ETHNIC VOTE - There was an ethnic dimension to this vote. It had already been predicted that the outer/non-Farsi provinces would go to the reformists, and West Azerbaijan and Sistan-Balochistan did that, with closer calls in Ardebil and Kordestan. Even those predictions on outer/non-Farsi provinces going to reformers was based on past voting trends (which reflected the historical neglect of those provinces by the centre), but the prediction and trend has been undercut in this election due to Ahmedinejad's policies of going and visiting those provinces and promoting development projects there (education, housing, industry, etc). It would be more interesting to compare Ahmedinejad's percentage of votes in 2005 from Sistan-Balochistan, West Azerbaijan, Kordestan, and Ardebil, to his percentage from 2009 to see how he has made inroads into those ethnic communities. But a cursory glance at rough maps shows the pattern (not percentage) is similar with Ahmedinejad having more solid support in the center both times, and having made some progress in the outer provinces by 2009.


RELIGIOUS VOTE - This is a pretty silly category to argue in Iran. The Reformist, Conservatives, and Revolutionary/Principalists ALL significantly draw from the clergy and identify as religious. Khatami and Karroubi are both (Reformist) clerics. Rafsanjani is also a cleric and in the Conservative camp (which by the way is socially MORE conservative than the others). The Principalists/Revolutionary trend is also equally religious but has a particular understanding of religion ground in the history, ideas, and intellectuals of the Islamic Revolution. All this indicates the complex, vibrant, and diverse discourse taking place on what religion is and what its purpose should be within Iran (and beyond).
But Westerners (and wannabe -Westerners like ones running around Tehran) are too blind to notice these complexities and find it easier for their own respective agendas (of left- or right-wing) to try to fit them into simplistic categories such as secular vs religious, or reformist vs fundamentalist. It is an attempt to classify religion in the same positions that existed and continue to do so in Judeo-Christian Europe, and its progeny, from the Middle Ages till now. If this isn't indicative of Euro-centrism, then I don't know what is.
Furthermore, since both Capitalist and Socialist/Left ideologies developed out of the same historical context, both of these establishment and left viewpoints end up being rooted in the same post-Enlightenment frameworks, which enshrine secularism, “modernity,” and the inevitable teleological narrative of social Darwinian “progress,” and then project these frameworks as universal and inscrutable unto the rest of the world as they have done so for at least the past 200 years. Such racist and prejudiced tactics are expected from those with capitalist and imperialist agendas, yet even Leftists exhibit the same analysis (and arguably the same Imperialist acts if they had the power) of Islamic movements.
It is based on these underlying premises that Secular Leftists see Iran as a reactionary and fascist state, and thus ignore or cannot explain the advances in male and female literacy, and rural literacy, women's access to contraceptives and family planning, expansion of public housing, expansion of health services, access to peer-led drug rehabilitation and needle-exchange programs, expansion of primary, secondary and technical schools, women making up a majority of students in higher education, community-based health clinics, AIDS prevention programs, reductions in infant mortality rates, redistribution of land to peasants, unprecedented availability of commodities to rural poor, opportunities for employment for women, etc.
However, these very same indicators that the Left uses to demonstrate the success of countries like Cuba, are completely ignored by the Left when it comes to Iran, essentially for no other reason that they have beards, wear hijab, and base these ideas and developments on understandings of the Quran and Hadith, rather than Marx, Engels, Lenin, or other white men.
And it is not just Iran, but similar models are successfully being used and developed by Islamic movements of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood within their communities. But here again, a convergence of the Left and the Imperialists sees these groups equally as fundamentalist reactionaries in the same category as Al-Qaeda, Taliban, Right-wing Christians in the US, etc.
If any of these accomplishment of Islamic movements are recognized by the Left, then either it is due to Islamists having learned from the Leftists, or that it is only a crude populism and only a means to sustain votes. None of these same critics of the Revolution have ever read any of the writings of the scholars that laid the foundations for the Revolution, such as Ayatullah Mutahhari, Ali Shariati, Ayatullah Khomeini, Ayatullah Baqir As-Sadr, Ayatullah Taleqani, to name a few. These same ideas form the basis upon which the Revolution is oriented to issues of economic justice.
For the reasons highlighted above, they are unable to grasp the root of the popularity among the masses of Iran for figures such as Ahmedinejad, and the disdain for the Conservatives and the Reformists (this only after having experiences Reformist economic privatizations under Khatami). It is for this reason, that Western predictions about what is going to happen in Iran prove wrong over and over again, and will continue to do so.
This is not to say there aren't any problems in Iran. There are still severe issues of social rights, womens' rights, worker rights, and especially issues of the police and prison apparatus, which has remained unchanged from how it was inherited from the Shah. There is also still a need to develop a coherent theory and praxis of Islamic economics, rather than a hodge-podge of capitalists, socialist, and Islamic measures. But it is a Revolution in progress, and has been challenged with immense opposition from its very inception with wars, sanctions, interference, and sabotage enforced upon it by imperial powers, neighbors, and internal opponents.
Here is one of the best articles published immediately after the voting results were announced - Wishful thinking from Tehran by Abbas Barzegar
Two articles posted while wrote this blog:
The New York Times and the Iranian election
The Iranian People Speak